Age at prediabetes diagnosis ‘key factor’ for risk of type 2 diabetes and cancer

Age at prediabetes diagnosis is a key factor for the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and cancer, new research has suggested.

Adults diagnosed with prediabetes between the ages of 55 and 75 have the highest risk of developing cancer compared to any other age group, which the researchers suggest could be linked to the elevated blood glucose levels.

The study also shows that people over 75 years of age at diagnosis have the lowest risk of progressing to type 2 diabetes compared with younger age groups.

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The findings are published in The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology and suggest that prevention and early detection efforts for diabetes and cancer should be adjusted based on the age at which someone is diagnosed with prediabetes.

The new study comes as nurses continue working to meet the requirements of the Healthier You: NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP), which supports patients in reducing and managing their risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Key requirements for nurses include identifying and referring at-risk patients, providing lifestyle advice and supporting behavioural change, and monitoring and following up with at-risk patients.

For this study, academics from the University of Leicester conducted an extensive population study examining Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care records linked to hospital and mortality records of 328,049 adults in England who were diagnosed with prediabetes between January 1998 and November 2018.

Each participant was tracked from the time of their prediabetes diagnosis until they developed type 2 diabetes, cancer or died.

The findings show an association between age at diagnosis and risk of developing diabetes or cancer. Within 10 years of a prediabetes diagnosis, 12% of men aged 75 years or younger developed either disease. For men who were younger than 55 years of age, the risk was higher, with nearly a quarter (24%) being diagnosed with one of these conditions 10 years after diagnosis.

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Overall, the cancer risk among men increased with age, ranging from 1.9% for those under 55 years of age to 7.8% for people between the ages of 65 and 75.

For women, the mortality risk following a prediabetes diagnosis varied significantly by age, ranging from 1.2% for those diagnosed before age 55 to 38.7% for those diagnosed after age 75.

The progression to type 2 diabetes differs by both age and sex, with the probability of developing type 2 diabetes ranging from 7.9% in older men over 75, to 24% in younger women under the age of 55.

The researchers say that factors such as BMI, smoking, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity also play a role in progressing from or transitioning out of prediabetes, but suggest that lifestyle factors are less important than age.

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Professor Kamlesh Khunti, from the University of Leicester and senior author of the research paper, said: ‘Our findings reveal a striking age-related difference in how prediabetes progresses.

‘Older adults diagnosed with prediabetes face a higher risk of death or of developing type 2 diabetes or cancer, while younger individuals have a greater chance of remaining in a stable prediabetes state. This highlights the importance of targeted strategies to support people at different stages of life and manage their long-term health risks.’