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Fall in lung cancer predicted

Fall in lung cancer predicted

Health experts have predicted that the proportion of people developing lung cancer will drop by 20% in the next 20 years as a result of the smoking ban.

According to Cancer Research UK, rates of the disease will fall from around 50 per 100,000 people to around 40 per 100,000 by 2024 as fewer people are exposed to smoking.

However, researchers warn that because people are living longer, more people in older age groups will be diagnosed with the disease due to the delay between smoking and onset of the condition. As a result, the actual number of people with lung cancer is set to rise from around 38,500 to more than 41,600 by 2024.

The results show that 90% of people with lung cancer have the disease due to smoking and men are more likely to suffer than women because they have been more likely to smoke.

Professor Max Parkin, co-author of the report, said: "These predictions are based on what we know to date about the current figures and trends for lung cancer.

"Lung cancer is unique in that we can track the reduction in cases with a reduction in the number of people exposed to a specific product - cigarette smoke."

Copyright © Press Association 2009

Cancer Research UK

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